Market Sizing Builder: Top-Down and Bottom-Up

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Opens on Chapter 20’s example: Kofi’s interview question: cups of coffee sold a day in Larkfield, an invented city of 240,000.

Top down

People

In the buying group %

Of them, who buy %

Each, a day

Bottom up

Sellers

Sold by each, a day

A year

A weekday

A weekend day

Price

Dog groomers

People per home

Homes with a dog %

Of those, using a groomer %

Visits a year

Grooms one groomer does a year

Enter your numbers, then press Calculate.

From the book, Chapter 20. Top down: 240,000 × 75% × 50% × 1 = 90,000 cups a day. Bottom up: 120 sellers × 600 = 72,000. They differ by 25%; the ladder middle is 80,498, about one cup for every three people (1/3). A week of 80,000 on weekdays and 55,000 at weekends is 510,000 cups, 26,520,000 a year: 106,080,000 dollars at $4, about $8.50 per person a week. Groomers: 96,000 homes, 38,400 with a dog, 19,200 using a groomer, 76,800 grooms a year ÷ 1,500 each = 51.2 groomers.

Rounding is half up, the way the book rounds. Numbers can be typed as 1,450, $38, 12%, 1/20, 2.5 million or 3 × 10⁷. Everything stays in your browser: no sign-up, nothing stored or sent.